For Chinese tire companies, the export market has been one wave after another. Having seen off the American tyre safeguard at the end of September, the European labelling law arrived on November 1st. Label method stage, for the domestic tire industry is both a challenge and an opportunity, overall look at no immediate worries have foresight.

The short-term impact is limited, but the medium - to long-term impact is large

From the point of view of the specific scope of the European labelling law, covering almost all tires, mandatory to do not meet the standards of the tire import and sales ban. The implementation of the labeling law will be divided into three phases, namely 2012, 2015 and 2018.

According to the national tire investigation and analysis results show that about 30% of the domestic tire is not up to the minimum requirements of the first stage of the European Union rolling resistance, 70% can not reach the minimum requirements of the second stage of the European Union rolling resistance; The rolling resistance of car tires is mostly E and F, most of which can temporarily meet the minimum requirements of the first stage of EU, but a considerable proportion of products can not meet the minimum requirements of the second stage of EU.

Car tire: In 2011, there were 7 European countries in the top 20 regions of car tire export, and its total export volume was 395,800 tons, accounting for 27.88% of the total export volume; From January to May this year, the export volume of 7 countries accounted for 21.81%, which was more due to the deepening of the European debt crisis, which caused the overall European auto industry to decline by more than 10%. Regardless of Europe's own factors, labeling law in the implementation of the first stage of the requirements, the domestic export of car tires can basically meet, so it is expected that the temporary export of car tires to Europe little change; In addition, from the perspective of the overall export of car tires, with the end of the special protection case more than a month later, it is expected that the proportion of Chinese exports of car tires to the United States is likely to rise again, after all, the demand of the United States itself is gradually improving. According to the data, the U.S. auto production exceeded 10% in the first 10 months of this year, and the annual production growth is expected to reach 12.5%.

Truck tire: According to statistics, China's truck tire export regions are mainly the United States and the Middle East countries, in recent years, China's export to the European Union truck tire is slow progress, in 2011 accounted for the total export proportion of only 3%, in 2011, the top 20 export regions only two European countries, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the export proportion is 3.1%; In the first five months of this year, Britain was the only country in the top 20, accounting for only 1.2 percent of the total. Therefore, even if 30 percent of the load tires in the first stage fail to meet the standards, it is not expected to have a big impact on the European market.

However, the implementation of the labeling law on the tire industry in the long - term impact is not negligible. Calculated from the European market alone, in the second stage, if the domestic technology can not be improved, 70% of the load tire will not meet the standard, according to the total export of load tire in 2011 of 7.4 billion dollars, about 155 million dollars, about 90% of the car tire will not meet the standard, according to the car tire export of 5.56 billion dollars, about 1.4 billion dollars, The total is about $1.555 billion, accounting for about 5% of the domestic tire output value of 207.9 billion yuan in 2011. At present, although the implementation of label law is a minority of countries, once fully implemented in the world, it will affect 56% of our car tire export, 23% of heavy tire export, the impact amount will be about 5 billion dollars, which accounts for 15% of the total production value of domestic tire, for domestic tire industry will be a serious impact.

The implementation of labeling law accelerates the technical innovation of domestic tire industry

In 2011, according to the export value of ranking top 10, respectively is: China giti, hangzhou zhongce, triangle group, shandong and exquisite, cooper chengshan, xingyuan tyre, fengshen, copper cash group, the wheel tyre company and Jin Yu group, these enterprises to export delivery value is generally increase by a wide margin, and 10 companies exports accounted for 65.2% of total exports. Among them, China Gitong Tire, Fengshen Tire and Double Money Stock are domestic listed enterprises. According to the performance analysis of these three enterprises in the first three quarters of 2012, the proportion of export in operating revenue is 72.62%, 35.99% and 38.61% respectively, and the net profit in the first three quarters increased by 260.78%, 5.17% and 61.12% respectively. According to the test shows that the export tires of the 3 companies can basically meet the requirements of the first stage of the labeling method, therefore, the labeling method will not have a significant impact on the performance of listed companies before 2015. On the contrary, the end of the US special protection case and the reduction of the cost of natural rubber raw materials continue to form a positive for the improvement of tire enterprise profits. Citing a brokerage researcher's calculation, the end of the United States special protection case on the tire industry profit supply and demand is expected to reach 5%-15%, which makes the 3 companies this year profit is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.

However, in order to cope with the second phase of the labeling law or to meet the arrival of the "green era", the domestic tire industry has a long way to go in technological innovation. The China Rubber Industry Association said it is currently working on a "green tire industrialization plan and self-regulatory standards" with the support of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and is expected to complete the work by the end of the year. In addition, China's tire labeling system is also in the process of being established. China's tire labeling law is being jointly developed with various tire companies, and the first draft of the tire labeling law is expected to be completed by the end of the year and may be promulgated in April or May next year.

Therefore, in the later period of domestic tire enterprises in the process of structural adjustment and technological update, it is expected to continue to increase investment in research and development, equipment, raw material costs and other aspects, which will weaken the profitability of enterprises to a certain extent. However, once the enterprise can develop its own advanced technology system and occupy a certain share of the high-end market, the improvement of overall profitability in the later period will show a qualitative leap.